Hi Arvind, Yogendra Yadav & Kumar Vishwas,
Fist accept my greetings & congratulations for well fought 2014 LS elections. We now have 4 representatives in Parliament & may have some in Rajya Sabha . I always believed AAP success in elections is in how tough & fair we fought. In that count we have achieved cent percent. So again congratulations to AAP family.
Now the LS elections have thrown some very surprising results & a very changed situation where we have to think of our future way to move forward, so writing to you what i feel as per my analysis.My analysis is AAP has graduated to 2nd stage so we should now make a gradual shift from being Tactical to Strategy oriented. Even in Ramayan Ram did strategise to get vibhishna to kill Raavan.
1,First lets talk about Delhi assembly- the Delhi & national LS elections has given a decisive verdict, we can call it a wave which just swept across states. But Interesting is this wave was with stood by states which had a strong govt with a strong & decisive leader like Jayalalita, Mamta , Naveen Patnayak. It tells us a story that small partys , caste based partys are swept away. Left is completely out.Frankly to speak there is no strong opposition party's left. Let me come to this latter but as per Delhi though AAP did better in vote share compared to assembly polls we could not win any seats because 1, The BJP wave 2, Cong decimation. This scenario will prompt BJP govt as it takes power to go in for snap re poll & it is seen polls held behind such massive wave has only followed the same pattern. If re poll is held in Delhi one aspect clear yes Cong will be decimated but even AAP likely to loose heavily. Reason BJP will go with just one slogan Modi is a aspirational leader who will do lot & if Delhi also with BJP we can do better work. We will not be able to counter it since AAP is just a baby, there has been enough time lapse between AAP govt & repoll, as by this time we know human memory is too short, last BJP money , muscle & media power since now in govt.On the other hand AAP has just finished election we will find fund crunch, man power shortage & no media power. AAP as an idea should be alive strong enough especially in this changed atmosphere & for that AAP immediately requires a state govt to survive this onslaught which we may likely face provided we get time. Yes we now require time to regroup & strengthen . For that we require to buy time min 2-3 yrs. We have to decide fast if idea of AAP has to survive
2, A Delhi AAP govt gives us two advantages for now a, It gives us the required time where this BJP euphoria will settle down..b, NModi has promised the Moon once he can't deliver disenchantment will start. c,A working AAP govt means a clean , effective govt, implementation will be seen by the people & compared with central BJP Modhi govt. The game can be completely reversed plus a AAP govt in Delhi will compliment our 4 MP's in parliament to prove a formidable opposition & show case of our work in 2019 LS elections.
3, As you know AAP should not expect any support from media we only have work to show case but with out a govt & negative campaign of AAP as bhagoda in capable of running a govt has seeped in so much none will take us seriously. Lets learn from the Left lessons how with out a state govt they are vanishing. We should not reach such a situation.
4,Strategically some times we got to pause & take a step back only to come back roaring. What now i see is we have to leave personal ego's aside & think to survive. The art of survival is adaptability to changed scenarios. These results have changed the situation completely so the fast we accept the reality & adapt AAP will survive .
5, Let me tell you i did support AK decision to resign but that situation was completely different but now situation completely different, luckily Cong decision to not dissolve the assembly is a opportunity by default will rescue AAP.
6, Now if ego is some thing in mind i will ask you please go back to basic why we formed , was it for us or for the people?A AAP govt it self is a Janlokpal for 5 yrs in power. I am not saying do not try passing Janlokpal keep trying until in power if then too fails people will know it . AAP govt main delivery will be Swaraj , we got to implement it for the idea to show case now it's just in theory. AAP work on cross subsidized cheap water & power , getting new business going & providing jobs through it , simplification of tax , health, women's toilet, environment , education etc etc lot of other works to work upon in Delhi and it will be compared to Modi BJP govt performance since that's the advantage in Delhi
7,The minority's especially the Muslims are very now fear full of BJP govt in center & if assembly elections held will go back to Congress thinking AAP is not capable to win against BJP. This vote's is what increased our vote share & our middle class support shifted to BJP . A good clean governance by AAP can bring back this votes to AAP. If re poll held now doubt AAP to win any ,
8,A AAP govt under the nose of Modi BJP central govt is good.
9,It would be better if Cong supports AAP reason we can't align with BJP since their any communal baggage in any part of India will stick to us if their support taken. 2nd see JDU case , BJP weakens their alliance partners, Yes if BJP supports it will be helpful for getting Delhi statehood & police but we can't be a strong opposition as per peoples perception. But Cong will be seen as a secular support.
10, While taking decision do discuss through google hang outs by you, yogendra & Kumar all three with NRI supporters of AAP to know their view. Bring them in decision making after all their support is required. Also discuss with people & supporters in India & explain your decision.
Here is a dilemma for you all but take decision based on serve the people & idea of AAP. Understand no one can convince every one there will be disgruntled elements but take right decision .
As per my personal opinion to buy time for this Modi euphoria to settle down we require some time & that time can be bought only if AAP forms Delhi govt..Next AAP govt should show that it does not only agitate but also is capable of working through partys to run effective govt. Along taste of good governance to people will remain long enough.
Fist accept my greetings & congratulations for well fought 2014 LS elections. We now have 4 representatives in Parliament & may have some in Rajya Sabha . I always believed AAP success in elections is in how tough & fair we fought. In that count we have achieved cent percent. So again congratulations to AAP family.
Now the LS elections have thrown some very surprising results & a very changed situation where we have to think of our future way to move forward, so writing to you what i feel as per my analysis.My analysis is AAP has graduated to 2nd stage so we should now make a gradual shift from being Tactical to Strategy oriented. Even in Ramayan Ram did strategise to get vibhishna to kill Raavan.
1,First lets talk about Delhi assembly- the Delhi & national LS elections has given a decisive verdict, we can call it a wave which just swept across states. But Interesting is this wave was with stood by states which had a strong govt with a strong & decisive leader like Jayalalita, Mamta , Naveen Patnayak. It tells us a story that small partys , caste based partys are swept away. Left is completely out.Frankly to speak there is no strong opposition party's left. Let me come to this latter but as per Delhi though AAP did better in vote share compared to assembly polls we could not win any seats because 1, The BJP wave 2, Cong decimation. This scenario will prompt BJP govt as it takes power to go in for snap re poll & it is seen polls held behind such massive wave has only followed the same pattern. If re poll is held in Delhi one aspect clear yes Cong will be decimated but even AAP likely to loose heavily. Reason BJP will go with just one slogan Modi is a aspirational leader who will do lot & if Delhi also with BJP we can do better work. We will not be able to counter it since AAP is just a baby, there has been enough time lapse between AAP govt & repoll, as by this time we know human memory is too short, last BJP money , muscle & media power since now in govt.On the other hand AAP has just finished election we will find fund crunch, man power shortage & no media power. AAP as an idea should be alive strong enough especially in this changed atmosphere & for that AAP immediately requires a state govt to survive this onslaught which we may likely face provided we get time. Yes we now require time to regroup & strengthen . For that we require to buy time min 2-3 yrs. We have to decide fast if idea of AAP has to survive
2, A Delhi AAP govt gives us two advantages for now a, It gives us the required time where this BJP euphoria will settle down..b, NModi has promised the Moon once he can't deliver disenchantment will start. c,A working AAP govt means a clean , effective govt, implementation will be seen by the people & compared with central BJP Modhi govt. The game can be completely reversed plus a AAP govt in Delhi will compliment our 4 MP's in parliament to prove a formidable opposition & show case of our work in 2019 LS elections.
3, As you know AAP should not expect any support from media we only have work to show case but with out a govt & negative campaign of AAP as bhagoda in capable of running a govt has seeped in so much none will take us seriously. Lets learn from the Left lessons how with out a state govt they are vanishing. We should not reach such a situation.
4,Strategically some times we got to pause & take a step back only to come back roaring. What now i see is we have to leave personal ego's aside & think to survive. The art of survival is adaptability to changed scenarios. These results have changed the situation completely so the fast we accept the reality & adapt AAP will survive .
5, Let me tell you i did support AK decision to resign but that situation was completely different but now situation completely different, luckily Cong decision to not dissolve the assembly is a opportunity by default will rescue AAP.
6, Now if ego is some thing in mind i will ask you please go back to basic why we formed , was it for us or for the people?A AAP govt it self is a Janlokpal for 5 yrs in power. I am not saying do not try passing Janlokpal keep trying until in power if then too fails people will know it . AAP govt main delivery will be Swaraj , we got to implement it for the idea to show case now it's just in theory. AAP work on cross subsidized cheap water & power , getting new business going & providing jobs through it , simplification of tax , health, women's toilet, environment , education etc etc lot of other works to work upon in Delhi and it will be compared to Modi BJP govt performance since that's the advantage in Delhi
7,The minority's especially the Muslims are very now fear full of BJP govt in center & if assembly elections held will go back to Congress thinking AAP is not capable to win against BJP. This vote's is what increased our vote share & our middle class support shifted to BJP . A good clean governance by AAP can bring back this votes to AAP. If re poll held now doubt AAP to win any ,
8,A AAP govt under the nose of Modi BJP central govt is good.
9,It would be better if Cong supports AAP reason we can't align with BJP since their any communal baggage in any part of India will stick to us if their support taken. 2nd see JDU case , BJP weakens their alliance partners, Yes if BJP supports it will be helpful for getting Delhi statehood & police but we can't be a strong opposition as per peoples perception. But Cong will be seen as a secular support.
10, While taking decision do discuss through google hang outs by you, yogendra & Kumar all three with NRI supporters of AAP to know their view. Bring them in decision making after all their support is required. Also discuss with people & supporters in India & explain your decision.
Here is a dilemma for you all but take decision based on serve the people & idea of AAP. Understand no one can convince every one there will be disgruntled elements but take right decision .
As per my personal opinion to buy time for this Modi euphoria to settle down we require some time & that time can be bought only if AAP forms Delhi govt..Next AAP govt should show that it does not only agitate but also is capable of working through partys to run effective govt. Along taste of good governance to people will remain long enough.
